Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting1-4
- Spencer StriderPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-4
- Ranger SuarezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Realmuto walked, Bohm scored, Kepler to second, Castellanos to third.0–2
- 2Kepler doubled to right, Bohm scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML ATL -105 / PHI -115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -104
- ATL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.2 – 4.3 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −2 | ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.12 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +28 Elo | PHI 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 11th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 25th of 309–18 | Road vs home | 17–86th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148830th of 30 |
| 9th of 301527 | Elo rating | 15415th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–29 | 27–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 14–23 | 21–22 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 21–31 | 23–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 18–15 PHI in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 33.