Boston Red Sox at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Garrett CrochetPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 11 K
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chad PatrickPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duran singled to right, Story scored, Rafaela to third.2–3
- 8Haase reached on infield single to third, Contreras scored, Durbin to second, Frelick to third.1–3
- 8Campbell grounded into fielder's choice to third, Devers scored, Wong out at second.1–2
- 5Monasterio doubled to left, Ortiz scored.0–2
- 1Chourio homered to left center (413 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 60%
- ML BOS -165 / MIL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 46.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BOS -149
- MIL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.2 – 3.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −3 | BOS: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Chad Patrick: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +22 Elo | MIL 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 57.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.313th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 3011–14 | Road vs home | 15–1016th of 30 |
| 27th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149525th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Elo rating | 151712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–27 | 27–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 13–20 | 15–14 |
| Underdog | 15–7 | 12–13 |
| Overs–unders | 27–28 | 22–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–3 MIL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.