Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-3, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Horwitz grounded out to third, McCutchen scored, Reynolds to third.8–5
- 9Reynolds doubled to center, Cruz scored, McCutchen to third.8–4
- 8Frelick singled to right, Yelich scored and Collins scored.8–3
- 8Collins singled to center, Chourio scored, Yelich to third.6–3
- 6Cruz doubled to center, Kiner-Falefa scored.5–3
- 6Yelich homered to right center (415 feet).5–2
- 4Horwitz homered to right center (409 feet).4–2
- 2Ortiz homered to left (382 feet).4–1
- 1Bart grounded into double play, third to first, Cruz scored, Reynolds to second, McCutchen out at third.3–1
- 1Yelich homered to left (356 feet), Chourio scored and Contreras scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 52%
- ML MIL -120 / PIT +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- MIL: Elo 54.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +1 | MIL: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mike Burrows (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +30 Elo | MIL 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 2.930th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.217th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.326th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 23rd of 309–16 | Road vs home | 11–1425th of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15093rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301516 | Elo rating | 145525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–26 | 21–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–13 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 10–13 | 18–17 |
| Overs–unders | 19–31 | 18–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 15–11 PIT in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 26.