Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Austin HaysBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Joey BartBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9De La Cruz doubled to right, Friedl scored, Espinal to third.7–1
- 9Friedl singled to right, Stephenson scored.6–1
- 9McLain hit sacrifice fly to right, Benson scored.5–1
- 8Hays singled to center, De La Cruz scored.4–1
- 8De La Cruz doubled to left, Friedl scored, De La Cruz to third.3–1
- 6Lux doubled to left, Hays scored.2–1
- 1Bart doubled to center, Reynolds scored.1–1
- 1Hays doubled to left, De La Cruz scored, Hays to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 52%
- ML CIN -120 / PIT +100
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.1%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -109
- PIT +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −11 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +29 Elo | CIN 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.327th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 12th of 3011–12 | Road vs home | 9–1326th of 30 |
| 30th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 15094th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Elo rating | 145526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–21 | 19–28 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 18–7 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders | 18–30 | 18–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 13–16 PIT in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 29.