Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-4
- Nick MartinezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Reynolds singled to right, Cruz scored, McCutchen to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 57%
- ML CIN -145 / PIT +120
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 54.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CIN -130
- PIT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.0 – 3.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1453 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +5 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +33 Elo | CIN 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 54.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −1.428th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 10th of 3012–12 | Road vs home | 9–1426th of 30 |
| 30th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 15093rd of 30 |
| 18th of 301500 | Elo rating | 145326th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–21 | 19–29 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–14 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 18–7 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders | 18–31 | 18–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–9 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 14–16 PIT in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 30.