Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Sal FrelickBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Logan HendersonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Pirates- Adam FrazierBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Bailey FalterPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8Turang doubled to left, Durbin scored.6–5
- 8Durbin doubled to left, Collins scored and Hoskins scored.5–5
- 7Frazier doubled to left, Canario scored on error and McCutchen scored, Frazier safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Collins.3–5
- 6Pham singled to left, Frazier scored.3–3
- 6Frazier singled to center, Canario scored.3–2
- 3Cruz homered to right (432 feet).3–1
- 1Frelick singled to center, Yelich scored on error and Collins scored on throwing error by center fielder Cruz, Frelick to third.3–0
- 1Hoskins hit sacrifice fly to right, Chourio scored, Yelich to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 58%
- ML MIL -155 / PIT +130
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 55.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -140
- PIT +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.6 – 3.9 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +9 | MIL: Logan Henderson: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · PIT: Bailey Falter: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +37 Elo | MIL 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 55.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.217th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.226th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–18 | Road vs home | 13–1524th of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15103rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301516 | Elo rating | 145625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–26 | 21–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–13 | 3–14 |
| Underdog | 12–13 | 18–18 |
| Overs–unders | 21–32 | 20–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 16–13 PIT in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 29.