Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Caleb DurbinBatting3-3, 1 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Cruz tripled to center, Kiner-Falefa scored.1–2
- 2Durbin singled to center, Yelich scored.1–1
- 1Horwitz doubled to center, Reynolds scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML MIL -110 / PIT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 43.7%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- MIL -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.3 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1455 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −14 | MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.70 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +44 Elo | MIL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.326th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–17 | Road vs home | 12–1525th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15103rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301517 | Elo rating | 145525th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–26 | 21–31 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–13 | 3–13 |
| Underdog | 11–13 | 18–18 |
| Overs–unders | 21–31 | 20–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 16–12 PIT in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 28.