Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Frazier scored on Uribe wild pitch.5–6
- 10Frazier scored on Uribe wild pitch.5–6
- 10Canario singled to center, Horwitz scored on error, Canario safe at second on fielding error by center fielder Chourio.5–5
- 10Collins singled to left, Durbin scored.5–4
- 9Cruz homered to right center (427 feet).4–4
- 9Contreras homered to center (408 feet).4–3
- 7Reynolds singled to center, McCutchen scored.3–3
- 7Chourio singled to left, Monasterio scored, Turang to second.3–2
- 7Turang singled to center, Bauers scored, Monasterio to third.2–2
- 6Hoskins singled to center, Chourio scored, Yelich to third, Hoskins safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Cruz.1–2
- 5Reynolds walked, Kiner-Falefa scored, McCutchen to second, Davis to third.0–2
- 3Cruz homered to center (442 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML MIL +100 / PIT -120
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 44.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- MIL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.2 – 3.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +16 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +42 Elo | MIL 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.030th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.318th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.326th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3010–16 | Road vs home | 11–1525th of 30 |
| 21st of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 15093rd of 30 |
| 12th of 301518 | Elo rating | 145425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–26 | 21–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–13 | 3–12 |
| Underdog | 10–13 | 18–18 |
| Overs–unders | 20–31 | 19–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 16–11 PIT in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 27.