Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BOS.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Ryan O'HearnBatting3-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.1 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Red Sox- Jarren DuranBatting4-5
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Toro singled to center, Mayer scored.5–1
- 8O'Hearn doubled to center, Henderson scored on throwing error by center fielder Rafaela and O'Hearn scored on throwing error by shortstop Mayer.5–0
- 6O'Hearn homered to right center (401 feet).3–0
- 5Carlson homered to right (372 feet).2–0
- 4Urías hit sacrifice fly to center, Henderson scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 55%
- ML BAL +115 / BOS -135
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- BOS: Elo 58.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -124
- BAL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.0 – 4.5 BOS
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | BOS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +11 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +58 Elo | BOS 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BOS 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.9 | Margin | +0.413th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 25th of 309–19 | Road vs home | 16–1318th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301475 | Elo rating | 150118th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–32 | 28–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–19 | 13–19 |
| Underdog | 12–13 | 15–7 |
| Overs–unders | 27–24 | 27–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 17–15 BOS in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 32.