Boston Red Sox at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Ceddanne RafaelaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Caleb DurbinBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Durbin hit sacrifice fly to center, Frelick scored.5–6
- 10Collins grounded into fielder's choice to second, Cameron scored, Collins second, Frelick safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Campbell.5–5
- 10Hamilton grounded into fielder's choice to second, Sogard scored, Story out at second.5–4
- 7Abreu homered to right center (404 feet).4–4
- 6Durbin doubled to left, Contreras scored and Frelick scored.3–4
- 5Chourio grounded out to first, Bauers scored, Turang to third.3–2
- 4Devers singled to center, Wong scored and Duran scored.3–1
- 3Bauers homered to right (392 feet).1–1
- 2Rafaela homered to center (386 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 58%
- ML BOS +130 / MIL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 57.8%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -140
- BOS +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.4 – 4.1 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +8 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +54 Elo | MIL 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.313th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 19th of 3011–16 | Road vs home | 17–1013th of 30 |
| 27th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 149524th of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Elo rating | 152012th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 28–29 | 29–27 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–21 | 16–14 |
| Underdog | 15–8 | 13–13 |
| Overs–unders | 27–30 | 22–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 3–5 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.