Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turner singled to center, Stott scored.9–3
- 9Albies grounded out to second, Ozuna scored, Riley to second, Olson to third.9–2
- 8Sosa singled to left, Castellanos scored.8–2
- 8Realmuto grounded out to shortstop, Schwarber scored.8–1
- 7Riley homered to left center (409 feet), Baldwin scored.8–0
- 6Williams singled to right, Albies scored and Riley scored, Harris II to third.6–0
- 4Albies homered to right (345 feet), Riley scored.4–0
- 4Riley doubled to left, Olson scored and Ozuna scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 53%
- ML ATL -125 / PHI +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 44.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- PHI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.9 – 3.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1544 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +10 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +35 Elo | PHI 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 51.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.013th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 27th of 309–20 | Road vs home | 19–83rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 9th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15444th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–30 | 28–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–23 | 22–23 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 22–32 | 24–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 18–17 PHI in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 35.