Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting1-4
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 4Acuña Jr. homered to center (428 feet), Harris II scored.0–5
- 4Harris II singled to center, Albies scored.0–3
- 4Riley homered to left center (400 feet).0–2
- 1Olson doubled to left, Acuña Jr. scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML BOS +155 / ATL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -166
- BOS +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.7 – 4.8 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −8 | BOS: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +28 Elo | ATL 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–17 | Road vs home | 16–1013th of 30 |
| 25th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 20th of 301497 | Elo rating | 152510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–29 | 25–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 13–21 | 15–24 |
| Underdog | 17–8 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 28–31 | 23–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 6–6 ATL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 12.