San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Jose IglesiasBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Stephen KolekPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting1-4
- Logan WebbPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Iglesias hit sacrifice fly to left, Cronenworth scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SF 61%
- ML SD +145 / SF -175
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- SF: Elo 51.7%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- SF -156
- SD +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.3 – 4.2 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +4 | SD: Stephen Kolek: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +12 Elo | SF 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.217th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.55th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.76th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 10th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 17–99th of 30 |
| 27th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149819th of 30 |
| 8th of 301526 | Elo rating | 151413th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–26 | 28–31 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–17 | 11–22 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–32 | 28–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 17–11 SF in their last 28 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 28.