Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Merrill grounded into fielder's choice to second, Arraez scored.2–3
- 6Arraez doubled to left, Tatis Jr. scored.2–2
- 6Horwitz singled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored, Reynolds to third.2–1
- 6Reynolds singled to right, Pham scored, Kiner-Falefa to second.1–1
- 4Merrill reached on infield single to shortstop, Machado scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 63%
- ML PIT +160 / SD -190
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- SD: Elo 63.9%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -170
- PIT +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.2 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +5 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.42 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +99 Elo | SD 63.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 63.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 308–20 | Road vs home | 18–96th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 149427th of 30 |
| 25th of 301460 | Elo rating | 15287th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–33 | 30–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–14 | 17–15 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–34 | 24–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–10 SD in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.