Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting4-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching3.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Reynolds homered to left center (405 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored and Cruz scored.9–6
- 8Kiner-Falefa doubled to left, Canario scored, Hayes scored and Pham scored.6–6
- 8Pham reached on infield single to shortstop, Davis scored, Canario to second.3–6
- 6Davis homered to left center (432 feet), Reynolds scored.2–6
- 4Naylor singled to center, Perdomo scored, Gurriel Jr. to second.0–6
- 4Gurriel Jr. singled to left, Carroll scored, Perdomo to second.0–5
- 4Perdomo singled to right, Lawlar scored and Thomas scored, Carroll to second.0–4
- 4Thomas singled to center, Moreno scored.0–2
- 1Carroll homered to right center (393 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 70%
- ML PIT +225 / ARI -275
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 64.9%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -238
- PIT +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 5.2 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1453 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +7 | PIT: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · ARI: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +107 Elo | ARI 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 65.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 65.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.924th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.3 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–20 | Road vs home | 14–1320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15162nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301453 | Elo rating | 152410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–33 | 28–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–14 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 19–19 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–34 | 25–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–9 ARI in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.