Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Randal GrichukBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Walker singled to center, Burleson scored.5–6
- 8Arenado grounded out to third, Herrera scored, Burleson to third.5–5
- 8Grichuk doubled to second, Naylor scored.5–4
- 8Naylor tripled to center, Perdomo scored and Suárez scored.4–4
- 8Gurriel Jr. hit sacrifice fly to center, Marte scored.2–4
- 7Pozo grounded out to pitcher, Walker scored.1–4
- 7Walker doubled to center, Arenado scored and Burleson scored.1–3
- 5Grichuk homered to left (401 feet).1–1
- 1Herrera singled to center, Winn scored, Donovan to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML ARI -105 / STL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- STL: Elo 49.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- ARI +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.7 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +1 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +4 Elo | ARI 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.87th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 8th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 17–85th of 30 |
| 1st of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 15076th of 30 |
| 11th of 301524 | Elo rating | 151414th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–26 | 31–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 14–17 | 10–10 |
| Underdog | 11–9 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 24–27 | 27–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 6–7 STL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.