Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-3, 3 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Moreno homered to left (399 feet), Grichuk scored.3–4
- 6Arenado tripled to left, Nootbaar scored, Donovan scored and Herrera scored.1–4
- 6Herrera walked, Scott II scored, Donovan to second, Nootbaar to third.1–1
- 4Marte homered to center (408 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML ARI -115 / STL -105
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 47.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- ARI -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | +3 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +20 Elo | STL 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +0.87th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 7th of 3013–11 | Road vs home | 16–86th of 30 |
| 1st of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 15066th of 30 |
| 10th of 301525 | Elo rating | 151314th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–26 | 31–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 14–17 | 10–9 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 24–26 | 27–23 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 6–6 STL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.