Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 10Muncy hit sacrifice fly to center, Ohtani scored.3–4
- 10Smith hit by pitch, Edman scored, Freeman to second, Ohtani to third.3–3
- 10Edman doubled to left, E. Hernández scored.3–2
- 10Carroll homered to left center (404 feet), Tawa scored.3–1
- 9Moreno homered to left (369 feet).1–1
- 4Smith doubled to left, Freeman scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 67%
- ML ARI +195 / LAD -235
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.7 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.7%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -207
- ARI +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.5 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +17 | ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.85 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +61 Elo | LAD 58.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 62.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.3 | Runs scored | 5.82nd of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.24th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 3013–9 | Road vs home | 17–86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 149228th of 30 |
| 9th of 301527 | Elo rating | 15571st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–25 | 24–24 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–17 | 18–23 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 24–24 | 28–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 17–17 LAD in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 34.