Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Geraldo PerdomoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Edman singled to right, T. Hernández scored, Conforto to second.9–5
- 9T. Hernández grounded into fielder's choice to third, Freeman scored, Smith out at second.9–4
- 8Perdomo homered to center (396 feet), Smith scored.9–3
- 6Betts homered to left center (412 feet).7–3
- 6Ohtani homered to left (389 feet).7–2
- 4Betts homered to left (401 feet).7–1
- 3Moreno homered to left center (411 feet), Naylor scored.7–0
- 3Gurriel Jr. homered to left center (395 feet), Carroll scored.5–0
- 2Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to left, Tawa scored.3–0
- 1Naylor grounded out to second, Gurriel Jr. scored, Suárez to third.2–0
- 1Suárez doubled to center, Marte scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML ARI +125 / LAD -150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -135
- ARI +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.9 – 5.6 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +3 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Jack Dreyer: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +59 Elo | LAD 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.81st of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.420th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3012–9 | Road vs home | 17–75th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 149128th of 30 |
| 11th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15601st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–25 | 24–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–17 | 18–22 |
| Underdog | 8–8 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 23–24 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 16–17 LAD in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 33.