Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6T. Hernández homered to center (413 feet), Rojas scored and Betts scored.1–3
- 4Marte homered to right center (425 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 57%
- ML ARI +125 / LAD -150
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -135
- ARI +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.4 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −3 | ARI: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Dustin May: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +40 Elo | LAD 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.2 | Runs scored | 5.72nd of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.24th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 5th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 18–84th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 149327th of 30 |
| 10th of 301526 | Elo rating | 15581st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–25 | 24–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–17 | 18–24 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 6–1 |
| Overs–unders | 24–25 | 28–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 17–18 LAD in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 35.