Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Alexander CanarioBatting2-4
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Josh NaylorBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 5Naylor homered to right (369 feet), Suárez scored.0–5
- 3Suárez homered to left center (433 feet).0–3
- 2Marte singled to left, Moreno scored.0–2
- 2Tawa hit sacrifice fly to center, Grichuk scored, Moreno to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 63%
- ML PIT +160 / ARI -190
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 62.0%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- ARI -170
- PIT +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.2 – 5.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1455 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +4 | PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +85 Elo | ARI 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.0 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.2 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–19 | Road vs home | 13–1320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301511 | Opponent Elo | 15172nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301455 | Elo rating | 152211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–32 | 27–26 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–14 | 14–17 |
| Underdog | 19–18 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 21–33 | 25–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–8 ARI in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 12.