Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Scott II singled to right, Walker scored.3–4
- 6Herrera hit sacrifice fly to right, Winn scored, Donovan to second.3–3
- 6Smith singled to right, Suárez scored.3–2
- 3Winn homered to left (397 feet).2–2
- 1Herrera singled to center, Donovan scored.2–1
- 1Suárez singled to right, Marte scored and Naylor scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 53%
- ML ARI +105 / STL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- STL: Elo 51.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -114
- ARI +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.6 – 3.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −3 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +11 Elo | STL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 24th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.012th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.88th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 9th of 3013–13 | Road vs home | 18–83rd of 30 |
| 1st of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 15085th of 30 |
| 10th of 301523 | Elo rating | 151514th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–26 | 31–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 14–17 | 10–11 |
| Underdog | 12–9 | 21–10 |
| Overs–unders | 25–27 | 28–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 6–8 STL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.