Pittsburgh Pirates at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.2 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Tim TawaBatting1-1, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Tawa homered to left (412 feet).10–1
- 8Cruz homered to right (372 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored.10–0
- 6Reynolds tripled to right, Triolo scored.8–0
- 6McCutchen grounded out to third, Kiner-Falefa scored, Triolo to third.7–0
- 6Kiner-Falefa doubled to right, Hayes scored and Davis scored.6–0
- 6Hayes singled to center, Horwitz scored, Davis to second.4–0
- 5Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to second, Hayes scored and Kiner-Falefa scored on error, Cruz safe at second, Triolo safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Lawlar.3–0
- 2Davis singled to left, Canario scored, Horwitz to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 57%
- ML PIT +120 / ARI -145
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 58.4%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -130
- PIT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.5 – 4.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −11 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +59 Elo | ARI 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 55.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.024th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−1.2 | Margin | +0.117th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 28th of 307–20 | Road vs home | 14–1420th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 15142nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301456 | Elo rating | 152111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–33 | 28–27 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–14 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 20–19 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 22–34 | 26–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–9 ARI in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 14.