Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching3.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Wade reached on infield single to pitcher, Tatis Jr. scored, Merrill to second, Arraez to third.4–6
- 7Machado hit sacrifice fly to center, Díaz scored.4–5
- 7Arraez singled to left, Iglesias scored, Tatis Jr. to second, Díaz to third.4–4
- 7Díaz singled to center, Bogaerts scored, Iglesias to second.4–3
- 6Merrill doubled to right, Arraez scored.4–2
- 4Frazier homered to left center (373 feet).4–1
- 3Hayes singled to center, Horwitz scored, Hayes thrown out at second.3–1
- 3McCutchen homered to left (365 feet), Cruz scored.2–1
- 1Machado homered to left center (396 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 57%
- ML PIT +125 / SD -150
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.3 pts
- SD: Elo 59.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SD -135
- PIT +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.9 – 4.6 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −10 | PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +69 Elo | SD 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.2 | Runs scored | 4.216th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.011th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 28th of 309–21 | Road vs home | 19–108th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 149227th of 30 |
| 25th of 301463 | Elo rating | 15259th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–33 | 30–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–14 | 17–17 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–36 | 24–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 6–11 SD in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 17.