Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting1-3
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baldwin walked, Olson scored, Williams to second, White to third.2–1
- 9Marte singled to left, Tawa scored.2–0
- 3Gurriel Jr. singled to right, Perdomo scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML ARI +150 / ATL -180
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.0 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.6%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -161
- ARI +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.2 – 4.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +11 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +32 Elo | ATL 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.911th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 17–1217th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 12th of 301516 | Elo rating | 152210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–30 | 26–33 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–21 | 16–25 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 30–30 | 24–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 7–10 ATL in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.