Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Nathaniel LoweBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Corbin BurnesPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 5Lowe singled to left, Abrams scored, Wood to second.1–3
- 1Suárez homered to center (466 feet), Gurriel Jr. scored.0–3
- 1Gurriel Jr. doubled to right, Marte scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 66%
- ML WSH +185 / ARI -225
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- ARI: Elo 58.4%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -197
- WSH +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 5.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +1 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Corbin Burnes: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +59 Elo | ARI 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 66.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 65.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.14th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 5.326th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.6 | Margin | −0.221st of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–928th of 30 |
| 10th of 3015–16 | Road vs home | 14–1723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15142nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Elo rating | 151214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–25 | 28–30 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 15–21 |
| Underdog | 33–16 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 29–29 | 29–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–11 ARI in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.