Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Josh BellBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Leody TaverasBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Rivas singled to right, Williamson scored.9–3
- 10Bell homered to right (386 feet), Ruiz scored and García Jr. scored.9–2
- 10García Jr. doubled to center, Wood scored and Lowe scored, Ruiz to third.6–2
- 10Lowe singled to left, Abrams scored, Wood to second.4–2
- 10Lile hit sacrifice fly to right, Tena scored.3–2
- 7Williamson singled to right, Taveras scored.2–2
- 7Taveras singled to left, Mastrobuoni scored.2–1
- 6Wood doubled to left, Abrams scored and Tena scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML WSH -105 / SEA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 58.4%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- WSH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 3.8 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −9 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +59 Elo | SEA 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.217th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 17th of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 14–1218th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 24th of 301466 | Elo rating | 152111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 30–25 | 27–27 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 9–21 |
| Underdog | 30–16 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 26–29 | 29–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–3 SEA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.