Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting3-5
- Luis CastilloPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Colton GordonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walker homered to left (361 feet), Altuve scored.3–5
- 6Smith doubled to right, Meyers scored.3–3
- 3Caratini hit sacrifice fly to right, Altuve scored.3–2
- 3Walker singled to left, Paredes scored, Altuve to third.3–1
- 3Solano singled to left, Rodríguez scored.3–0
- 1Garver doubled to center, Arozarena scored and Rodríguez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 57%
- ML SEA -150 / HOU +125
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- SEA: Elo 48.6%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -135
- HOU +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 3.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +1 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.52 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Colton Gordon: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +10 Elo | HOU 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3016–11 | Road vs home | 17–1014th of 30 |
| 28th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 10th of 301524 | Elo rating | 15259th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–25 | 27–25 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 15–19 |
| Underdog | 18–6 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 27–24 | 21–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 20–12 HOU in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 32.