Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Logan EvansPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
White Sox- Lenyn SosaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane SmithPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Taveras homered to right center (391 feet), Rivas scored.6–5
- 7Meidroth singled to right, Elko scored, Rojas to third.4–5
- 6Raleigh homered to left (352 feet).4–4
- 4Palacios homered to right (385 feet).3–4
- 4Sosa homered to left (359 feet), Thaiss scored.3–3
- 3Elko homered to left (407 feet).3–1
- 1Rodríguez homered to center (401 feet), Crawford scored and Polanco scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 58%
- ML SEA -155 / CHW +130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 64.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -140
- CHW +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.6 – 3.9 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −6 | SEA: Logan Evans: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CHW: Shane Smith: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +100 Elo | SEA 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.229th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −1.124th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 1st of 3014–9 | Road vs home | 10–1326th of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 10th of 301526 | Elo rating | 140629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–23 | 26–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–17 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 16–6 | 26–22 |
| Overs–unders | 25–22 | 23–26 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 11–4 CHW in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.