Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Andrew VaughnBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Davis MartinPitching7.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Vaughn singled to center, Meidroth scored, Robert Jr. to second, Thaiss to third.5–1
- 8Rodríguez homered to left (365 feet), Williamson scored, Crawford scored and Garver scored.5–0
- 3Polanco singled to right, Williamson scored, Crawford to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 64%
- ML SEA -200 / CHW +165
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- SEA: Elo 66.8%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -177
- CHW +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.9 – 3.6 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1406 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −12 | SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Davis Martin: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +122 Elo | SEA 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.327th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −1.124th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 1st of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 9–1225th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 149721st of 30 |
| 10th of 301526 | Elo rating | 140629th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–22 | 25–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 7–16 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 16–6 | 25–21 |
| Overs–unders | 25–20 | 23–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 10–3 CHW in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.