Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Dylan MooreBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Astros- Jose AltuveBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Lance McCullers Jr.Pitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Caratini singled to left, Diaz scored, Walker to second.2–9
- 6Altuve homered to left (372 feet), Paredes scored.2–8
- 5Altuve homered to left center (403 feet).2–6
- 4Peña tripled to left, Smith scored and Dubón scored.2–5
- 4Dubón singled to right, Meyers scored, Smith to third.2–3
- 3Altuve hit sacrifice fly to right, Dubón scored.2–2
- 3Paredes grounded into fielder's choice to third, Smith scored, Peña out at second, Dubón to third.2–1
- 2Moore homered to center (413 feet).2–0
- 1Tellez singled to center, Crawford scored, Arozarena to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SEA -130 / HOU +110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 52.4%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- HOU +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.4 – 4.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −23 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 1.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +17 Elo | SEA 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 15th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.6 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 1st of 3015–9 | Road vs home | 15–915th of 30 |
| 29th of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 9th of 301526 | Elo rating | 152311th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–24 | 26–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–18 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 16–6 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 26–22 | 20–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 19–10 HOU in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 29.