Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon WalterPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Walls hit sacrifice fly to left, Morel scored.2–3
- 8Aranda singled to right, Misner scored and Caballero scored.2–2
- 3Paredes homered to left (387 feet).2–0
- 2Meyers doubled to center, Caratini scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML HOU +115 / TB -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- TB: Elo 49.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TB -124
- HOU +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.5 – 5.0 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +4 | HOU: Brandon Walter (no track record yet) · TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +4 Elo | HOU 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 17th of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 11–1827th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 11th of 301527 | Elo rating | 149421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–22 | 21–26 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–16 | 7–18 |
| Underdog | 10–6 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 19–28 | 18–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 8–5 TB in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 13.