Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Victor CaratiniBatting2-3
- Hunter BrownPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob deGromPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 6Burger homered to right center (394 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 55%
- ML HOU +110 / TEX -140
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- TEX: Elo 48.4%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -123
- HOU +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.0 – 3.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +12 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jacob deGrom: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +11 Elo | HOU 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 20th of 307–11 | Road vs home | 15–89th of 30 |
| 11th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149521st of 30 |
| 9th of 301526 | Elo rating | 149720th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–21 | 22–22 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 15–16 | 11–12 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 18–24 | 14–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 19–14 TEX in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 33.