Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jack LeiterPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Paredes homered to left (352 feet), Meyers scored and Smith scored.4–3
- 7Diaz homered to right center (401 feet).1–3
- 4Burger singled to center, Jung scored, Semien to third.0–3
- 4Heim hit sacrifice fly to right, Langford scored, Jung to third.0–2
- 4Jung singled to left, Haggerty scored, Langford to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML HOU -115 / TEX -105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- TEX +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.8 – 3.7 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −13 | HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.60 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Jack Leiter: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +34 Elo | HOU 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.526th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.44th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 308–13 | Road vs home | 17–910th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149720th of 30 |
| 9th of 301525 | Elo rating | 149819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–22 | 23–24 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–16 | 12–14 |
| Underdog | 8–6 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–26 | 15–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 20–16 TEX in their last 36 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 36.