Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Langford homered to left (431 feet).1–5
- 7Smith hit sacrifice fly to left, Haggerty scored.1–4
- 6Pederson homered to right (409 feet), Semien scored.1–3
- 3Langford reached on infield single to shortstop, Higashioka scored on error, Haggerty safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Peña.1–1
- 1Walker doubled to center, Paredes scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML HOU +100 / TEX -120
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- TEX: Elo 49.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.7 – 3.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +13 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.66 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +5 Elo | HOU 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 20th of 308–12 | Road vs home | 16–911th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149620th of 30 |
| 9th of 301527 | Elo rating | 149620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–21 | 22–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–16 | 11–14 |
| Underdog | 8–5 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 19–25 | 15–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 20–15 TEX in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 35.