Houston Astros at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Christian WalkerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lance McCullers Jr.Pitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Josh JungBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nathan EovaldiPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jung homered to right (357 feet).6–3
- 7Walker homered to left center (410 feet), Altuve scored and Paredes scored.6–2
- 7Paredes singled to right, Peña scored and Smith scored, Altuve to second.3–2
- 7Smith doubled to center, Meyers scored.1–2
- 2Heim singled to right, Jung scored and Carter scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 63%
- ML HOU +160 / TEX -190
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- TEX: Elo 54.3%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- TEX -170
- HOU +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.7 – 4.8 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1498 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −32 | +7 | HOU: Lance McCullers Jr.: team allows 1.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · TEX: Nathan Eovaldi: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +30 Elo | TEX 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.426th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 307–12 | Road vs home | 16–88th of 30 |
| 11th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149522nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301525 | Elo rating | 149819th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–21 | 22–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–16 | 11–13 |
| Underdog | 7–5 | 11–10 |
| Overs–unders | 18–25 | 14–31 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 19–15 TEX in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 34.