Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jake MeyersBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Colton GordonPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Rays- Danny JansenBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 7Meyers homered to right (338 feet).4–3
- 6Caballero doubled to left, Díaz scored.3–3
- 5Jansen homered to right (330 feet), B. Lowe scored.3–2
- 2McCormick singled to center, Smith scored.3–0
- 2Smith doubled to left, Meyers scored.2–0
- 2Caratini homered to right center (385 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML HOU +120 / TB -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.5 pts
- TB: Elo 49.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TB -130
- HOU +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.0 – 4.5 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +4 | HOU: Colton Gordon: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +7 Elo | HOU 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.923rd of 30 |
| 7th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.113th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 309–13 | Road vs home | 11–1726th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 9th of 301526 | Elo rating | 149521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–22 | 21–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–16 | 7–17 |
| Underdog | 9–6 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 19–27 | 18–28 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 7–5 TB in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.