Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Díaz homered to center (435 feet), Misner scored and Mead scored.4–8
- 8Paredes homered to left center (407 feet).4–5
- 8Dubón homered to center (385 feet).3–5
- 5B. Lowe homered to right center (346 feet).2–5
- 5J. Lowe homered to center (410 feet).2–4
- 4Mead homered to center (397 feet).2–3
- 1Simpson singled to left, Aranda scored on error, Caballero to second, Simpson to second, Caballero safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Dubón.2–2
- 1Aranda singled to left, Díaz scored on error, Aranda safe at second on fielding error by left fielder Dubón.2–1
- 1Paredes homered to left center (407 feet), Peña scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 60%
- ML HOU -165 / TB +140
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 55.6%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- HOU -149
- TB +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.7 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1526 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | −11 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +39 Elo | HOU 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.013th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 3010–14 | Road vs home | 12–1827th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 10th of 301526 | Elo rating | 149521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–22 | 21–27 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 15–16 | 7–19 |
| Underdog | 11–6 | 14–8 |
| Overs–unders | 19–29 | 18–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 8–6 TB in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.