Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Emerson HancockPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan GustoPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Raleigh homered to right (369 feet), Rodríguez scored.5–3
- 7Rodríguez doubled to right, Crawford scored.3–3
- 5Walker hit sacrifice fly to left, Paredes scored.2–3
- 5Mastrobuoni homered to left center (345 feet).2–2
- 3Paredes homered to left (347 feet), Peña scored.1–2
- 3Taveras homered to right (398 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML SEA -105 / HOU -115
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- HOU: Elo 54.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 4.2 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −4 | SEA: Emerson Hancock: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · HOU: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +28 Elo | HOU 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 16–913th of 30 |
| 29th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 150210th of 30 |
| 11th of 301523 | Elo rating | 15268th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–25 | 27–23 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 15–17 |
| Underdog | 16–6 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 27–22 | 21–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 19–11 HOU in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 30.