Seattle Mariners at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Mitch GarverBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Astros- Victor CaratiniBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Framber ValdezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 2Garver grounded out to third, Arozarena scored.1–2
- 1Caratini singled to right, Walker scored.0–2
- 1Walker reached on infield single to pitcher, Altuve scored on throwing error by pitcher Woo, Walker to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 51%
- ML SEA -115 / HOU -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 47.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -104
- HOU +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.8 – 3.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +16 | +13 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.79 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Framber Valdez: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +15 Elo | HOU 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SEA | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.65th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.414th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3016–10 | Road vs home | 16–1015th of 30 |
| 28th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15038th of 30 |
| 9th of 301525 | Elo rating | 152410th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–25 | 27–24 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–19 | 15–18 |
| Underdog | 17–6 | 12–6 |
| Overs–unders | 27–23 | 21–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 20–11 HOU in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 31.