Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Mariners- Miles MastrobuoniBatting2-2
- George KirbyPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wood doubled to center, Abrams scored and Lile scored.9–0
- 8Hassell III homered to center (416 feet).7–0
- 5Wood homered to right center (435 feet).6–0
- 4Tena doubled to left, Hassell III scored and Bell scored.5–0
- 4Hassell III singled to left, García Jr. scored, Bell to second.3–0
- 2Bell homered to left (378 feet).2–0
- 2García Jr. homered to center (404 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 66%
- ML WSH +185 / SEA -225
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- SEA: Elo 61.5%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -197
- WSH +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 4.5 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | 0 | WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +81 Elo | SEA 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 66.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +0.511th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 3011–16 | Road vs home | 14–1118th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149128th of 30 |
| 24th of 301462 | Elo rating | 152510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–25 | 27–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 9–20 |
| Underdog | 29–16 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 25–29 | 28–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–3 SEA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.