Washington Nationals at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitchell ParkerPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Cal RaleighBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan EvansPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arozarena grounded into fielder's choice to third, Rodríguez out at second, Williamson scored and Crawford scored on throwing error by second baseman García Jr., Arozarena to second.1–9
- 6Rodríguez singled to right, Williamson scored.1–7
- 6Crawford grounded out to shortstop, Solano scored, Williamson to second.1–6
- 6Williamson grounded into fielder's choice to third, Moore scored, Solano third.1–5
- 5Raleigh homered to left (365 feet).1–4
- 4Wood homered to center (448 feet).1–3
- 1Raleigh homered to left (389 feet).0–3
- 1Rodríguez homered to left center (394 feet), Crawford scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 59%
- ML WSH +135 / SEA -160
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 59.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- SEA -145
- WSH +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.8 – 4.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −10 | WSH: Mitchell Parker: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Evans: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +64 Elo | SEA 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.9 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 19th of 3011–15 | Road vs home | 13–1118th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149128th of 30 |
| 24th of 301465 | Elo rating | 152211th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–24 | 26–26 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 8–20 |
| Underdog | 29–15 | 18–6 |
| Overs–unders | 24–29 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–2 SEA in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.