Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Josh BellBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 0 K
Diamondbacks- Pavin SmithBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Perdomo grounded out to third, Carroll scored.9–7
- 7Hassell III singled to right, García Jr. scored.9–6
- 6Lowe singled to right, Abrams scored and Tena scored, Wood thrown out at third.8–6
- 3Smith doubled to center, Gurriel Jr. scored.6–6
- 3Gurriel Jr. singled to center, Naylor scored, Gurriel Jr. to second, Suárez thrown out at home.6–5
- 3Bell homered to center (430 feet), Lowe scored and García Jr. scored.6–4
- 3Wood homered to left center (401 feet).3–4
- 1Smith singled to center, Suárez scored, Gurriel Jr. to second.2–4
- 1Suárez singled to right, Perdomo scored.2–3
- 1Naylor grounded out to second, Marte scored, Perdomo to third.2–2
- 1Perdomo singled to right, Carroll scored, Perdomo safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Lile, Marte safe at third.2–1
- 1Hassell III singled to center, García Jr. scored and Lowe scored, Bell to third.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 67%
- ML WSH +195 / ARI -235
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- ARI: Elo 59.3%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -207
- WSH +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.0 – 5.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +9 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +66 Elo | ARI 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 62.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.125th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 16th of 3013–16 | Road vs home | 14–1522nd of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15132nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301470 | Elo rating | 151712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–25 | 28–28 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 15–19 |
| Underdog | 31–16 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 27–29 | 27–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–11 ARI in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 15.