Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-5, 3 RBI
- Michael SorokaPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Diamondbacks- Randal GrichukBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Grichuk homered to left (362 feet), Moreno scored.11–7
- 6Moreno reached on infield single to shortstop, Smith scored.11–5
- 6Smith tripled to right, Naylor scored and Suárez scored.11–4
- 4Naylor homered to right center (383 feet), Perdomo scored.11–2
- 2Lowe grounded out to first, Tena scored, Abrams to second, Lile to third.11–0
- 1García Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to second, Abrams scored, Wood out at second.10–0
- 1Wood singled to center, Lile scored, Abrams to third.9–0
- 1Lile doubled to center, Tena scored.8–0
- 1Tena doubled to right, Hassell III scored and Ruiz scored.7–0
- 1Ruiz doubled to center, García Jr. scored and Bell scored, Hassell III to third.5–0
- 1García Jr. doubled to center, Lowe scored and Wood scored.3–0
- 1Lowe doubled to left, Abrams scored, Wood to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 62%
- ML WSH +155 / ARI -185
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 59.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -166
- WSH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 4.2 – 5.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −3 | WSH: Michael Soroka: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +64 Elo | ARI 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 64.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 25th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 5.226th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 14th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 14–1623rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15142nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301472 | Elo rating | 151512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–25 | 28–29 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–9 | 15–20 |
| Underdog | 32–16 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 28–29 | 28–29 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 5–11 ARI in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 16.