Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer StriderPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Carroll homered to center (416 feet), Moreno scored and Thomas scored.8–3
- 5Carroll homered to right center (438 feet).5–3
- 4Albies singled to center, Ozuna scored.4–3
- 4Ozuna safe at first on fielding error by third baseman Suárez, Olson scored, Ozuna safe at second.4–2
- 4Baldwin homered to right (378 feet).4–1
- 3Marte homered to right (371 feet), Carroll scored.4–0
- 2Moreno singled to right, Suárez scored.2–0
- 1Marte homered to right center (445 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 60%
- ML ARI +140 / ATL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- ATL: Elo 57.3%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ATL -149
- ARI +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 4.7 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +5 | ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Strider: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +51 Elo | ATL 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 26th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.810th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 27th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 12th of 3013–14 | Road vs home | 17–1113th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 14th of 301513 | Elo rating | 152510th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–30 | 26–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–21 | 16–24 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 29–30 | 23–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 6–10 ATL in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.