San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Manny MachadoBatting4-4, 2 RBI
- Ryan BergertPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Landen RouppPitching6.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Cronenworth singled to right, Merrill scored.3–2
- 9Machado singled to left, Lockridge scored and Tatis Jr. scored, Machado to second, Arraez to third.2–2
- 3Ramos homered to center (421 feet), Bailey scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 58%
- ML SD +130 / SF -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.9 pts
- SF: Elo 51.4%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -140
- SD +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.4 – 4.1 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +1 | SD: Ryan Bergert (no track record yet) · SF: Landen Roupp: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +10 Elo | SF 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.118th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.54th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.77th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 8th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 17–1011th of 30 |
| 28th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 8th of 301527 | Elo rating | 151313th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–26 | 28–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 18–17 | 11–23 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–33 | 28–32 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 0–10 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 18–11 SF in their last 29 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 29.