Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tommy HenryPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Braves- Austin RileyBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Suárez doubled to left, Vargas scored and Marte scored.11–10
- 9Vargas singled to center, Carroll scored, Marte to second.9–10
- 9Marte reached on infield single to shortstop, Herrera scored, Carroll to third.8–10
- 9Thomas homered to right (404 feet), Tawa scored.7–10
- 9Gurriel Jr. homered to left (400 feet).5–10
- 8Harris II singled to right, Allen scored.4–10
- 8Marte homered to center (419 feet).4–9
- 6Baldwin homered to right (391 feet).3–9
- 6Acuña Jr. homered to right center (388 feet).3–8
- 5Riley homered to left (380 feet).3–7
- 4Naylor singled to left, Marte scored and Perdomo scored.3–6
- 4Perdomo doubled to left, Carroll scored, Marte to third.1–6
- 3Albies doubled to right, Ozuna scored.0–6
- 3Ozuna doubled to center, Olson scored and Riley scored.0–5
- 3Olson doubled to center, Baldwin scored, Riley to third.0–3
- 3Riley singled to center, Acuña Jr. scored, Baldwin to second.0–2
- 2Verdugo doubled to right, Albies scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 59%
- ML ARI +135 / ATL -160
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.8%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -145
- ARI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 5.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −4 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +27 Elo | ATL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.022nd of 30 |
| 24th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.910th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 17–1317th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 11th of 301517 | Elo rating | 152110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–30 | 26–34 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–21 | 16–26 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 10–8 |
| Overs–unders | 30–31 | 24–36 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 8–10 ATL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 18.