San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Gavin SheetsBatting2-5, 4 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Giants- Matt ChapmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Lee hit sacrifice fly to center, Fitzgerald scored, Ramos to third.5–6
- 7Ramos doubled to left, Adames scored and Johnson scored, Fitzgerald to third.5–5
- 6Chapman homered to left (362 feet), Lee scored.5–3
- 5Bailey doubled to right, Johnson scored.5–1
- 5Sheets singled to right, Arraez scored and Merrill scored.5–0
- 5Merrill doubled to left, Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to third.3–0
- 1Sheets tripled to right, Tatis Jr. scored and Machado scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SD 51%
- ML SD -115 / SF -105
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- 0.0 pts
- SD: Elo 51.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- SD -104
- SF +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 3.8 – 3.7 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −1 | SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +7 Elo | SD 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SD | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 3.44th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 5th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 7th of 3015–14 | Road vs home | 17–1113th of 30 |
| 29th of 301492 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 8th of 301528 | Elo rating | 151214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 33–26 | 28–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 18–17 | 11–24 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 17–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–34 | 28–33 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 0–10 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 19–11 SF in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 30.