New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting3-4
- Kodai SengaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Rockies- Mickey MoniakBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lindor doubled to right, Alonso scored and Soto scored.4–2
- 7Moniak singled to right, Hilliard scored, Moniak out stretching at second.2–2
- 7Alonso doubled to left, Soto scored and Marte scored.2–1
- 3Moniak homered to right (390 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 70%
- ML NYM -275 / COL +225
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 71.4%, market 70.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -238
- COL +238 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 6.2 – 4.3 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1393 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −9 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +159 Elo | NYM 71.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 71.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 71.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 70.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.3 | Runs allowed | 6.129th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.1 | Margin | −2.930th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 12th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 6–2230th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 15151st of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Elo rating | 139330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–31 | 27–35 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 18–26 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 14–5 | 25–32 |
| Overs–unders | 23–40 | 25–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 9–6 COL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.