Colorado Rockies at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching4.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8McNeil homered to right center (378 feet).2–8
- 7Estrada singled to left, Tovar scored, McMahon to second.2–7
- 4Soto homered to center (404 feet).1–7
- 4Nimmo homered to right center (417 feet), Lindor scored.1–6
- 1Taylor singled to center, Baty scored.1–4
- 1Baty tripled to left, Lindor scored, Nimmo scored and Soto scored.1–3
- 1Tovar homered to left (376 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 75%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 76.7% of 30 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 75%
- ML COL +285 / NYM -360
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 76%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- NYM: Elo 74.6%, market 75.1%
- Fair odds
- NYM -301
- COL +301 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 5.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1390 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +15 | COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +188 Elo | NYM 74.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 76.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 76.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 75.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.1 | Runs scored | 4.313th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 3.31st of 30 |
| 30th of 30−3.1 | Margin | +1.05th of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 303–26 | Road vs home | 22–71st of 30 |
| 1st of 301518 | Opponent Elo | 149621st of 30 |
| 30th of 301390 | Elo rating | 15394th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–34 | 27–30 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 17–25 |
| Underdog | 21–31 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–34 | 20–37 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 6–7 NYM in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 13.